Why the SNP Won Big in Scotland — But Faces Its Biggest Challenge Yet

On 7 May, Scottish voters delivered a paradoxical verdict on the Scottish National Party. After eighteen years in government, after being rocked by criminal investigations into party finances, after losing Westminster seats, and after changing leaders mid-term, the SNP won 57-58 seats in the Scottish Parliament, maintaining its position as the largest party.

But the numbers tell a more complicated story than simple victory.

The headline results

The SNP won 58 seats in the 129-seat Scottish Parliament. This is fewer than the 72 seats it won in 2021, but still makes it the largest single party. To form a government alone, a party needs 65 seats. The SNP fell short.

This forced the SNP to form a coalition government. After May 7, the SNP entered negotiations with the Scottish Green Party, which won 15 seats. Together, they have 73 seats, a working majority. The deal gives the Greens ministerial positions and influence over environmental policy, in exchange for their support on confidence votes.

The Labour Party won 17 seats, a significant improvement from its position in 2021, but far from a breakthrough. The Scottish Conservatives won 7 seats. Reform UK, standing for the first time in Scottish Parliament elections, won 17 seats, a remarkable achievement for a party that did not exist as a Scottish Parliament force until this year.

Why the SNP won (despite everything)

The SNP’s victory is remarkable given the obstacles it faced.

In 2023, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon was arrested as part of a police investigation into party finances. She was later released without charge, but the investigation damaged the party’s reputation. Her replacement, Humza Yousaf, took office in March 2023, making him Scotland’s first Muslim First Minister. But in April 2024, Yousaf announced he was stepping down, citing the toll the role took on his mental health. John Swinney replaced him. In a period of eighteen months, the SNP had changed leaders twice.

In the 2024 UK general election, the SNP’s Westminster representation collapsed. The party won only 9 UK Parliament seats, down from 48. This was presented as a massive rebuke to the party’s strategy of prioritising independence over UK-level politics. Some Scottish voters had clearly switched to Labour, which gained 37 Scottish seats in that same election.

Yet on 7 May, Scottish voters gave the SNP its third consecutive Holyrood majority (albeit reduced).

Why?

The independence question

The answer lies in the distinction between Scottish Parliament and Westminster elections. Scottish Parliament elections use a proportional voting system (Additional Member System). This makes it harder for single parties to dominate, and easier for smaller parties to win representation. Reform UK’s 17 seats in the Scottish Parliament are unprecedented for the party, but they represent only about 13% of the vote. In a first-past-the-post Westminster system, this would translate to far fewer seats.

More importantly, SNP voters appear to distinguish between Holyrood (where the SNP governs Scotland) and Westminster (where the SNP has less influence). Many Scots voted SNP for the Scottish Parliament because they value the party’s record on devolved matters: health, education, local government. The Westminster collapse was a protest against the UK Labour government. But the Scottish government is run by the SNP. Changing that would require voting for Labour, which many Scots have not been willing to do.

The SNP’s entire political strategy is built around Scottish independence. Eighteen years of SNP governments in Scotland have not achieved it. Two independence referendums have been held, 2014 (No won 55%-45%) and 2023 (blocked by the UK government).

The SNP argues that winning Holyrood elections is a step toward independence. The logic is: SNP governs Scotland, wins elections, builds the case for independence, eventually holds another referendum, and Scotland votes Yes.

But this strategy has not worked. Since the SNP took office in 2007, Scottish independence support has not materially shifted. Polling shows roughly 45% support for independence, 45% for the Union, with the rest undecided. This has been stable for a decade.

The May 7 results do not change this. The SNP won. But it won fewer seats than before. And independence support remains static.

What comes next for the SNP

The SNP faces three challenges.

The first is governing Scotland effectively. Eighteen years in government means the public judges the SNP on its record: NHS waiting times, school exam results, crime rates, housing policy. On most of these measures, the SNP’s record is mixed. A 12-seat loss in this election reflects voter dissatisfaction with devolved issues, not just Westminster politics or leadership scandals.

The second is recovering at Westminster. The SNP needs to rebuild its Westminster presence to have leverage in a hung Parliament. If Labour governs with a very slim majority, SNP MPs become important. If Labour has a large majority, the SNP is marginal. The next UK general election is by 2029 and the SNP will spend the next three years trying to win back Scottish seats.

The third is the independence question. The SNP’s entire raison d’être is Scottish independence. But it has been in government for eighteen years without achieving it. At some point, SNP supporters will ask: is this party delivering on its core mission? The results on 7 May suggest that some are already asking that question.

The bigger picture

The SNP’s victory on 7 May was real. It is still the largest party and will form the next Scottish government. It has survived scandals, leadership changes, and electoral setback.

But it is a diminished victory. The party that won 72 seats in 2021 won only 58 in 2026. The party that presented itself as Scotland’s independence movement has not advanced that cause in a decade. Unfortunately,the party that governs Scotland has not delivered transformative improvements in public services.

The SNP remains dominant in Scottish politics but it is no longer invincible.

Additional sources

BBC Scotland election coverage

Scottish parliament official results